题目：BIG DATA IN MACROECONOMICS: NEW INSIGHTS FROM LARGE ADMINISTRATIVE DATASETS

Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility

作者：Raj Chetty et.al.

文献出处：American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 2014, 104(5): 141–147；NBER Working Paper No. 19844.

主讲人：童幼雏博士

时间：2019年11月14日14：00-16：00

地点：浙江财经大学我院1号楼302室

主办单位：浙江财经大学现代公共经济学研究中心

内容摘要：We present new evidence on trends in intergenerational mobility in the U.S. using administrative earnings records. We find that percentile rank-based measures of intergenerational mobility have remained extremely stable for the 1971-1993 birth cohorts. For children born between 1971 and 1986, we measure intergenerational mobility based on the correlation between parent and child income percentile ranks. For more recent cohorts, we measure mobility as the correlation between a child’s probability of attending college and her parents’ income rank. We also calculate transition probabilities, such as a child’s chances of reaching the top quintile of the income distribution starting from the bottom quintile. Based on all of these measures, we find that children entering the labor market today have the same chances of moving up in the income distribution (relative to their parents) as children born in the 1970s. However, because inequality has risen, the consequences of the “birth lottery” – the parents to whom a child is born – are larger today than in the past.

“孟母三迁”故事的美国版。RajChetty等人应用美国大数据，对1971-1993年期间出生的孩子们进行分析，针对他们父母的收入状况对他们的收入状况的影响，以及父母搬迁对子女将来受教育及收入分层的影响。研究发现而今进入劳动力市场的孩子们与1970年代出生的孩子们相比，收入分配（相对于父母）的增长机会相同。但随着不平等现象加剧，“出生彩票”（孩子出生的父母）的后果比过去更大。